Ospeechma

Ya know, I really just work and look past all the distractions and that’s all I should be doing. I am not going to get stuck on politics and right and wrong. Everyone has their own story, opinion, and choice.

There is more opportunity right now than there has been in my lifetime. The only catch is you have to make your own opportunity.

I tuned in with my ADHD blinders to Obama’s big speech today, and he made alot of good points, like he does in most of his speech’s. In fact, a lot of what he said, you can look back months at my posts on this very blog and find a lot of the same ideas and beliefs. But, much like this blog, it is all talk.

I have as much of a chance of changing the course were on as Obama does. And if that does not say it all then nothing else does either. We need someone so intelligent that it scares people. We need to put the fear in the rest of the world. Someone so Genius with a bit of crazy is long overdue.

We are so predictable that we are ineffective. It’s time that changes. It’s time we use secrecy as a foreign policy.

Beyond that, too late Obama. You won’t get reelected because you blew the momentum and opportunity, now no one believes in you.

Look for gold to cap $1800 into the new year and back toward $2000 for January 2012. This recession is going to be worse than the previous one. This is going to be a test for all.

By the way, Our New Waterbury location is open at 11o1 Huntingdon Avenue, Waterbury, CT. 06704 (203) 527-6410

The festival of light, at the end of the tunnel….

It has been interesting to see that as a result of the Euro Crisis, the value of the dollar has soared for a short period, and, during that period, the economy has been far more robust. There must be a correlation between the strength of the dollar and the sentiment of consumers and investors. While you would assume just that, we have not had the luxury of really seeing it in action in quite some time.

This phenomenon really sheds light on the Feds and how their poor choices have crippled our economy more than they have helped it, by keeping the value of our dollar lower than it needs be.

While a strong dollar is bad news for Gold Prices, do not expect the dollar strength to continue. Another signal that gold prices are poised to rise is the end of the festival of lights, Diwali. Every year, prior to this festival, prices of gold fall. Several tons of gold will be consumed by the Republic of India during the wedding season, and that will hopefully get gold back to the $1700 level.

Stocks have also been performing well. With a healthy holiday season near, it seems that seasonal jobs are helping to ease the jobs situation enough to make it artificially appear that we are showing signs of recovery.

It is also remarkable that Bank of America is showing a 6 billion dollar profit. Wow! We just bailed them out for billions of dollars, didn’t we? I love how they can take all of that extra money and use it to make windfall profits. It’s good to be in the bank business in the USA. You can take taxpayers money if you have an in with the Feds, and use that to suck huge profits out of our financial system. You can then store that money and not use it to help fix the economy you nearly destroyed!

To all of the Occupy Wall Street protesters, I get it! There is no doubt that you are right by insisting an end to the greed that cripples the dream for the rest of us. You know, before the Occupy Wall Street movement, I was a fan of Mayor Bloomberg, but, since he has spoken out and expressed his own disdain for the protestors, I have lost all respect. That, along with many of his staff members being involved in Payroll and Other scandals of corruption, I no longer believe he is on the right side, which is that of the American middle class. He is clearly at bat for Wall Street.

So I have a question? What is going on with the Euro? Does anyone really care anymore? It has been a drag for years now, but almost as quickly as it nearly cripples the world, it disappears as a threat and goes from center stage on broadway, to barely playing a prop in the scene.

I have something else to add, a prediction of sorts. I have been quietly observing the situation in China. I have come to the conclusion that China is a bubble and not a viable economy. China will fail. The bottom line is this, while they are making obscene profits and act as a vacuum of the global economy, which sucks up currencies from the world around, giving little back, its people are blowing the dough on very material things, such as expensive bags, watches, and clothing. They are like kids at the mall with a pocket full of money. They recently had a national holiday, in which many traveled to Hong Kong, to buy expensive name brand items that are of better quality than the cheap copies that circulate the Chinese Marketplace. It seems they could not get enough of $5000 hand bags and other over priced goods. It’s just a matter of time before the conditions falter enough to put them into personal debt enough to spur a real estate crisis, or a recession, or both.

India, on the other hand, is going to remain our biggest competitor in the worlds economic arena. They are highly educated and skilled, while we are just laying on the couch and not training for the battle.

Some good news is that we are pulling out of Iraq. This is the one Obama Admin moves I agree with. I think it’s a sound idea to end the costs associated with the war that never should have been. I hope that next is Afghanistan, who, if put in the middle, has admitted they would side with Pakistan. Oh, how nice, after all we have done to liberate and stabilize you. You are going to take sides with what is shaping up to be a terrorist school and breeding ground like no other.

Then there is Iran, plotting to kill the Saudi’s here in New York City. Kind of a bold move, no?

And while I’m at it, I am glad that Ghadaffi is dead, but what a disgraceful way to go! Being sodomized on a public street and then shot in the head while he was not armed! While you can argue that he deserved that and a whole lot more, it doesn’t say much about the people who are taking over the reigns. Maybe they will stand behind Pakistan too.

Oh, if you are a troubled home owner, you can get a fannie/freddie refinance deal, as long as you haven’t been as much as late on a payment in the past year, and you qualify, and you only owe no more than 80% of your current homes value. I think those rules clearly quality about 100 americans for a nice refinance deal. Now that is a solid governmental way to spur the values of homes and fix the foreclosure crisis.

Oh, another crisis has been exposed, the Student Loan crisis. apparently, tons of people are set to default on payments as there are no jobs and they cannot just print money like the feds to pay their debts. Ron Paul makes another very good point in that the Govt. should get out of the student loan biz as all it is doing is inflating tuitions. If no one could afford college, they would go out of business, right? So by disabling the access to student loans, colleges would be forced to lower tuitions and would have a lot less money to blow on paying athletes to play on their football and basketball teams, and for once, they would actually have to provide a quality education at an affordable price.

I am beginning to believe in Ron Paul as he just makes sense and is playing for the right team. It would be nice to, for once, have a leader that you don’t have to question.

Occupy the Moment

So alot of discussion about the growing Occupy Wallstreet Movement. Alot of people seem to be taking sides.

I support the Occupants and here is why. For decades now, Wall Street has exported many of our jobs to make more profit, and it is damn time they see the millions of faces of people they have effected. I will assume it won’t change much of anything, in the near future. It will, however, lead to a long term trend of bringing jobs back home to America.

Corporations will realize they must be successful in their backyard to be successful elsewhere. This “Occupy Movement” is the beginning of American’s having enough of Wall Street, and Washington, not being accountable. I just hope it is sooner than later.

So many Investment Bankers have invested money in Developing Countries, to make money, but have just made it impossible for America to compete against low wages. This, coupled with heavy Industry Regulation, generated by funding and way of lobbyists, and Large Companies can limit their competition so they can fix pricing and control entire markets.

Another unrelated mention is Solyndra and the ATF’s Fast & Furious Campaign, both proof that transparency does not exist and that corruption looms large in the Obama white house. I guess Chicago Politics have not changed much in nature.

Now on to Precious Metals, I think an approach to 1800 Gold is in order. Silver should rise back toward $40. Wall Street needs to be prepared for another crash. While many american businesses have found a way to be successful again, they are mostly smaller companies. The big companies that are now depending on overseas labor are going to find out that it is no different elsewhere. Labor Unions and demands will pressure their profit margins, and tariffs and transportation of goods will make them wonder why they are doing business they way they do anyway.

Don’t worry America, the jobs will return here in time. Keep on Occupying Wall Street and putting a face to the lives they effect, and sooner or later they will use it as a PR move to bring some jobs back home. It must get lonely having no companions or allies in your enterprise. Everything we build abroad is merely going to come back to haunt us. We are developing competition for ourselves that will not sleep or take long breaks.

Be sure to prepare yourself for election time and don’t be afraid to vote outside of the ballot box…….by this I mean, look at independents and really investigate what they are about and what their history reveals. We need to take a few steps back and really be proud of our heritage. We should not elect anyone that is apologetic of our triumphs, or mistakes. America did not need change, we needed strength and for our businesses to support us and our families. Personally, I could give a shit about the welfare of India or China, or third world nations. I wish them all well, but I don’t think we need a hand in steering their development by buying all of their goods and training their workforce.

What the Hell is Going on here, there, there too, everywhere???

So it would seem that in September, if you were an investor of any kind, you were a loser.

I don’t know much about stocks other than you are buying and selling bull shit on a piece of paper, I have a vast knowledge of gold, both of which are as valuable as Lehman Bros. Stocks.

Just prior to gold’s recent fall, a few odd things happened. One being UBS 2.5 Billion Dollar Rogue Trader Loss, the other being the Feds New Strategy “the Twist”, and another being the Euro Crisis that has been ongoing for the past several years. Why now would all of this tie in together and enlist havoc to all markets, is left purely to the imagination.

I think for one, “The Twist” is not a new policy, but the same boring and incapable policy that Bernanke has been pushing since taking the helm from Greenspan. As for the Euro Debt Crisis, I think it was just conveniently given emphasis as a distraction.

The one White Elephant in the room that is left is the UBS 2.5 Billion Single Investment Loss. Hmmm. That is a bit of just plain weird. There is not much info about it. Kind of like the Solyndra Scandal. I think all of these are results of corruption and an attempt of a cover up. I hate to be a conspiract theorist, but Gold was rising still in AUD and CAD. Hedge Funds are not Selling Off. Central Banks are not selling Off. ETF’s have remained consistent.

So why such a big correction? Well, I think that maybe their is a bit of market manipulation. UBS needs to make up the 2.5B loss. I would also assume that other big companies took a similar hit. My guess is that it was an intended market manipualation attempt gone wrong. Maybe a computer had the wrong sell stops in place or an option was erred. Whatever the exact case we can only speculate that it was a tell that massive large bank market manipulations are an ongoing scheme that even our own government is involved in.

The other factor keeping prices down would be Dawalhi, which is an Indian wedding festival that runs serveral months, and where marriages take place. A lot of miners depend on this festival to sell gold. The price nearly always falls to prior to this event to attract more buyers to the market place. It ends in November but prices usually firm prior to this.

My assessment is that the market, due to manipulative actions, remains very unstable now. It can still go as low as $1200. People have been tremored now by even the most safe haven for investors.

I am also pretty sure that the dollar rally will become bearish and help stabalize prices, unless the Euro crisis looms on for months.

We are also beginning an election cycle, so all of the card tricks the fed has left will go into play over the next 6-8 months.

It is going to be a messy ride, so diversify your investments and don’t count out that being CAD or AUD, whose banks are far more stable than the USA or Europe.

On another note, on October 1st, new laws go into effect for Precious Metals Dealers and most Chiefs of Police will be adopting their own new policies which will include hold periods of 5 to 10 days. What this means to sellers is that for one, payouts will be lower. You have to consider that if I am buying your gold or silver, I will have to assume that the market will drop in a period of 10 days, and buy accordingly.

The laws also require each item be photographed and tagged and made available for inspection. This adds more cost to the buyer and will be passed on to the seller.

For those selling Bullion, you will go from getting 95-100% of spot, to probably getting about 80%. Trust me, there is nothing worse than buying something volatile and paying for it, and not being able to liquidate it for 10 days after you make payment. I could go to the casino and have the same results most of the time.

In response to this, I have to assume I will buy much less bullion and coin, and I plan to open 2-3 more stores to take in more scrap gold. If I don’t accomplish this and make this work, I may as well call it quits now. It is ridiculous that I have to be exposed to this. I do not feel we need government intervention just because a small percent of people who sell things are thieves. I always think that people should not leave their valuables unattened. The burden should not be the honest folks trying to get the most return, or the buyer who tries to give the best value.

Once the government gets in the middle of any deal, it just goes in the wrong direction.

To my customers and potential customers, I will be doing my best in keeping our pricing as high as possible but you also need to understand that I am a business and need to make profit to pay the bills so, October will be a month of trials in hopes we can adapt a system that is good for both sides.

TTYL,

Joe

Dip Sticks

So it is nearing the end of September, traditionally a horrible month for investors, and it is looking like signs of most everyones worst fears, another recession, are proving just what I and alot of others have been saying all along; that federal policies are forcing us into a non functional economy with inversely proportionate unstable markets that are causing what should be smart decisions by investors to blow up in their faces and force them to sell off what they have left.

By allowing the stock market to be merely a trip to the Pallazo in Vegas, it is safer to contact a local bookie and wager on spreads of Baseball and Football, than it is to invest in Bonds, Commodoties, or Equities.

By bailing out over extended companies several years back, we let the people who created the mess carry on business as usual and put is in a much deeper whole. Along the way, we spent every last dollar we needed to pull us out of the new coming recession, forcing us to have to monetize future debts or sell of bonds and other promissary notes to fund our worthless government and it’s excessive costs.

The fed announces in the midst of all this, on top of a global economic disaster, that it will lower interest rates in what they call the “spin”, and the stock market rebounds, only to crash hours later on news of recession #2. Does anyone stop and think that it is just time to give Bernanke and crew their walking papers?

Why do we even have a “Fed” anyway? They just destroy our security of our monies? I just don’t get it. You take your hard earned money and invest it for security, and they get involved and start taking your money that is locked into an investment that should be earning, and bail out some loser bank that gets it’s credit downgraded, and it spoils the whole damn market.

I can’t even tell you how much money I have lost because of these assholes. I put my money where it should be safe based on the rules and market momentum at the given moment, and then in a few weeks they change the course of the entire world by creating some new losing policy that makes no sense, unless it is to bail out their friends and their own investments. It is nothing less than pure corruption and they should all be charged with treason and hung at the gallows.

So Gold comes crashing down as the dollar goes soaring on news of Euro disaster and Bernankes new “spin” policy….First of all, when you have to give a gimmick name to a fed policy, it is going to go down in history as one of the dumbest ever moves. Second of all, when you have been lowering rates for the past 4 years in an attempt to spur economic growth, and it has not worked at all, you do not continue to do it.

I remember when I was a kid, I had poison ivy, and I kept scratching it, and everyone told me to stop. I could not resist the urge to scratch the itch. Eventually, I ended up with a bad infection that had spread inside of my body and I was hospitalized. I learned after that that continuing to do something that creates the opposite effect of what you intend to do is a stupid move.

Someone needs to stop these fed assholes and far beyond that, we need to stop the political machine that  is set on destruct mode. I am watching the news, and they execute some guy that most people involved think is innocent, and they have no proof he committed the crime he is charged with. The sensible thing to do is stop the execution and review the evidence. Nope, kill him instead.

C’mon, WTF???

I get so frustrated by ignorance and a blatant disregard of common intelligence and even sensible humanity. There has to be a point where we cannot turn this thing around and we are all going to suffer. We have to be getting close to that point.

Listen, I can see all of what is happening clearly. We are simply too big to survive. We are too many people fighting for the scarce resources we need to survive. There are not enough jobs, not enough money, and not enough opportunity to have the quality of life we expect. Sooner or later, we have to stop growing and start managing our population so we can all have a good quality of life.

This probably means we will have to stop letting people into the country. This probably means that we will have to stop spending billions in Pakistan and other countries to provide them aid, and provide it to ourselves. It means that we will have to be like all other countries, selfish.

As for gold, silver, platinum……It will recover as people reevaluate the position of the dollar. That should take all of 2 days.

As for the long term, Gold is good till about 2560 per ounce, after that, it will rise, but you and I will not have any left. Once it breaks 2500, lets just all admit we are selling. The real rise in gold will come when there is none left except what is to be unearthed. Once the miners have control, they can slow down a bit less than demand requires and boost the prices. That is how it will play out and it could be a few years in the making.

As for Diamonds, the market was picking up with great steam as India was buying diamonds in place of gold, and because they now have all the disposable income the world has to offer.

The market has just dropped signifigantly as Debeers Corp. flooded the India Market with too many diamonds. I think it was a good business move on their part, it helps them to keep their top place in the diamond supply business, and it helps eliminate many diamond dealers from the already crowded market. Not to mention that it gives them some much needed capital to make it past the big dip we are heading into. You have to consider that Debeers has been around thru most of the big economic disasters in history and they have alot of experience to draw from when it comes to making decisions that are this big.

It is unlike them to flood a market, they normally under supply a market, so it tells me that they are preparing for the worst case scenario and that is not a good sign.

I have also come to learn in the past few years, that Gold is an a cycle that is purely emotional. People are buying on fear, and selling on boredom. I have learned that when I am not paying attention due to lack of interest, that gold drops drastically. However, when I am most interested, it is rising and setting new records daily.

That is how I have been successful in buying and selling, purely based on my own gut feeling, or lack of.

Silver is a bit tricky and I just have lost trust in it, which could very well mean it is going to reach a new peak soon enough. I often sell off short on silver as it seems to drop 3 or 4 dollars per ounce when I feel good about it. I sell, then it corrects and gains quickly.

The way the economy is poised now, it is like a poker tournament and you have to trust your senses more than logic. It helps when you can pick out tells along the way, or signals from key players. That comes from experience and years of market evaluation and observation.

Anyway, Bernanke, Buffet, Barack, and Biden all need to be dismissed and pushed off the far edge of the planet. We need to start being sensible and accountable for not only our actions, but the actions of the most wealthy and influential people of our society. We have surpasses the point of being dull and just sitting back while it all comes down, it is time to stop providing income to the people who support and pledge campaign funds to those that are making us weak and poor.

While I am on that note, the poverty level is increasing at an alarming rate. Your wonder boy president you all believed in has not fulfilled one single promise he made during his many long speeches that had you all in tears and hugging each other through most of 2008. If you give him another chance, once again you will find yourselves in tears, hugging each other again, as you lose your homes and jobs, and end up living on the streets.

2012 will probably be the most important election in the history of America, and there is not a really single good candidate to choose from.

Good Luck and don’t forget to fill your oil tank, it will be a long cold unforgiving winter.

The way the wind blows…

So there will be course altering events piling up this week.

The most obvious being Hurricane Irene. I often wonder if a large natural disaster is a positive or negative factor for the economy? I try and look back for specific examples. I cannot really decide. I remember in the nineties, we had Hurricane Andrew. It wiped out South Florida. It was really a driving force that helped pull us out of the recession at that time by putting hundreds of thousands back to work in construction and building supplies. Lumber and Housing prices nearly doubled a short time after, and that spawned the beginning of real estate price growth.

While in the short term it was devastating for local economies, in the long term, insurance companies and federal agencies shelled out massive amounts of money to the one group that often is responsible for economic recoveries, the middle class. By putting people back to work, and giving the working class a steady pipeline of dispursible funds, economies thrived. It was a great time. It was prior to China manufacturing everything, so alot of the money stayed put in America.

That is another big question mark. If Irene causes tens or hundreds of billions in damage, and the Federal Government and Insurance Companies hand off replacement dollars to repair the damage, how much of that money is funneled overseas and mainly back to China? We have to admit, we have a gaping wide hole in our pocket. In fact, isn’t it China and India that now have most of our jobs?

Which leads to the next big event: Obama’s vacation is coming to an end, and he is expected to return to Washington to announce a new jobs plan that will include a barackage of stimulus policies and government spending to encourage companies to hire and rev up the construction industry. For those of you wondering, I made up the word barackage, just because I am always fascinated with how the Media always coins a new word of the week, so that is my contribution.

Anyway, as I am not the biggest fan of Obama, I have to think that at some point, he has to get at least something half right. I give him credit for the Osama Kill and that is about all so far. So I gauge a 50/50 shot that the jobs plan will have some effect. If you order the upgrade of airports, schools, highways, etc., that will put people back to work and start the engines turning.

Now, the jobs plan is coming at a time when we face uncertain record damages from this storm. I can’t really say if this will derail the Obama Jobs Plan. I really don’t know how deep the insurance companies pockets are. If you remember back in 2008, when we were handing our money out to big companies, Insurance companies received some of that money. They, at the time, blamed other large storms as the reason they were broke. Could Irene be the straw that breaks their back? In the south where storms often occur, housing is cheaper and per square mile, it is much less dense and populated. In the Northeast, the costs per square mile can probably be as high as 10 to 20 times higher than the southern coastal areas.

The insurance industry employs a lot of people. If that industry begins to fail, it could be the final factor in pushing us over the recovery cliff into another deep recession. If the government is largely responsible for footing the damage bill, then that will lead us back down the road of inflation.

Now how does all of this effect gold? I do always like to point out that gold usually acts negatively to stimulus talk, and just minutes after the earthquake in Virgina last week, prices sank 5%. Historic events like Hurricane’s Katrina and Andrew did not help gold either. In fact, I believe the outcome of Hurricane Andrew led to a major fall in Gold as banks abandoned the yellow metal after filling their vaults with dollars, probably generated by Hurrincane Andrew revenues that flowed in for years after the damage.

Needless to say, it will be an interesting period. So much happening. An election on the way, lower oil prices, job stimulus on the way, and an very busy hurricane season on the way.

My gut is that the Irene is going to be a positive force in assisting unemployed make some much needed cash. Out of work carpenters will be able to work around the clock. They will have to lower their wages, but being that it is for a good cause, they will probably do it with a smile, and with any luck, long after the damages are repaired, they will continue to work for a fraction of what they used to earn.

Which opens a whole new window into this mess. How many people are out of work because they are unwilling to accept wages lower than what they made during the height of the housing market bubble? I mean, if you once were making $60-100 per hour because there was so much demand, in a recession phase, you have to be willing to take $15-20 per hour, but, most guys won’t even start their truck for that kind of money, as they claim it is beneath them???

So with that said, I am leaning toward the Hurricane helping a recovery. People back to work. Supply stores and even grocery stores make more sales. Insurance companies and Federal Government are forced to put money in the hands of the middle class, and the last one there is the #1 reason why it helps. The middle class, the ones who receive no stimulus, who receive no assistance, who carry the rich and the poor, will finally get a check in their mailbox.

Be Safe and if asked to do so, EVACUATE!

Momentum

Are we there yet? I think since 2008 we have all been waiting for the bottom to hit. I think most would be surprised at just how far, deep, and wide the bottom really is. The momentum has been downward for a long time, but Government Bailout’s and Policy Intervention has stalled the bottom from surfacing. Instead of actually lifting our Economy, the Fed’s policies have just delayed the inevitable.

The best thing that could happen is that we get it over with. Let it all come crashing down. We need to rebuild and reinvent America. Every policy needs a look and tweak, Every aspect of our infrastructure needs to be redesigned to get us into the future and beyond.

We need to look at resource utilization closely, and adapt ways that will be sustainable to our growth as humans, and not just economically. We are all just sucking on the ice as it is melting around us. There is a very serious consequence to our lack of action and that is going to be a bleak existence of poverty, civil rioting and outbreaks, and lawlessness. It may be years away, it may be just month away.

None of us really know the extent of the USA’s financial systems. We do not know exactly how underwater we are. We have no idea how much money the Fed has printed to offset it’s debt. We could wake up one day, and the dollar will be worth pennies. Know that everyone is pointing fingers, it’s not long before someone spills the truth about our monetary system.

With less than 58% of our population over the age 16 having a paying job, it seems pretty bleak looking ahead. I would have to say that that number could easily turn to 35% in a short time. The momentum is gaining downward.

However frightening it is to most people, it may be just the thing needed to make us really look at outstanding issues we have for long ignored, and reshape our existence into something that is sustainable.

Now that the rest of the world is using our best practices and systems to get themselves ahead, it is time, once again, that we change the game and redefine new standards and practices for the future, not the past.

Gold is surprising as in overnight trading it gained upward of $1770 per ounce. This is the first time I have seen Gold surpass Platinum in value, showing that the slowing of the economy has spurred investors fears to an all time high. What is next we can not know, but be prepared for the worst, as it is definitely being served in the near future.

We are out of billion dollar bailouts and I expect the Fed Reserve to take a hands off approach as they have run out of tricks to bandage the wounds. Put your excess dollars into Gold and Silver, you can’t go wrong at this point.

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